CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID 06Z WED 11/06 - 06Z THU 12/06 2003
ISSUED: 11/06 02:16Z
FORECASTER: GROENEMEIJER

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FRANCE

GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS AN AREA SURROUNDING THE SLGT RISK AREA INCLUDING MUCH OF FRANCE, PARTS OF SPAIN, SOUTH-CENTRAL EUROPE, THE CZECH REPUBLIC, SLOVAKIA, THE UKRAINE, POLAND, BELARUS AND THE BALTIC STATES.

GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BALKANS

GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN SCANDINAVIA

SYNOPSIS

A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY JET IS LOCATED FROM THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO SOUTHERN SCANDINAVIA, WHERE A RIDGE IS LOCATED. DOWNSTREAM THE FLOW IS NORTHWESTERLY OVER EASTERN EUROPE ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF A TROUGH OVER WESTERN RUSSIA. QUIESCENT FLOW PATTERN IS IN PLACE OVER SOUTHERN EUROPE.

DISCUSSION

...FRANCE...
DURING THE DAY SFC DEW POINTS WILL RISE TO AROUND 20 C WITH EXPECTED TEMPERATURES OF AROUND OR ABOVE 30 C SOUTH OF A POORLY DEFINED FRONTAL ZONE FROM NEAR NANTES TO NORTHEASTERN FRANCE...YIELDING SUBSTANTIAL LATENT INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 1000 - 2000 J/KG MLCAPE50. SCATTERED STORMS ARE FORECAST TO INITIATE DURING MID-AFTERNOON. EXPECTED DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 30 - 40 KTS MIGHT BE MARGINALLY SUFFICENT FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MODE, HOWEVER, TO BE MULTICELLS. THETA-E DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MID-LEVELS AND SURFACE WILL LIKELY EXCEED 25C IN SOME PLACES, WHICH IMPLIES THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME STRONG DOWNDRAFTS. APART FROM THE SEVERE WIND THREAT THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LARGE HAIL IN PLACES. DURING THE EVENING SOME STORMS WILL POSSIBLY CLUSTER INTO ONE OR MORE SMALL MCS'S. EXPECT THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT TO DEMINISH DURING THE LATE EVENING AND INTO THE NIGHT.

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